“Failure to Rescue”: An Imperfect Measure Well Suited to Complement an Imperfect World

Visualization of an Imperfect World

“Seeing is believing” goes the popular saying—our brains are wired to accept what we see as the truth. Excluding visual deceivers like chameleons and their like, this holds true in nature most of the time. In synthetic imagery, however, it doesn’t always. To begin with, the visualized data and information can be inaccurate or even wrong. Moreover, in the synthetic digital world anybody can visu...

Imperfect Data in an Uncertain World

Bayesian analysis and modeling, in which uncertainties are quantified in terms of probability, offers an alternative approach to understanding in meteorological applications. The underlying principle, practiced in fields like archaeology and geology, is the accumulation of evidence. The approach provides a mathematical rule to update existing beliefs in light of new evidence. It requires the da...

How an Expert can use Imperfect Knowledge to Improve an Imperfect Theory

This report addresses the challenge of using auxiliary information I A to improve a given theory, encoded as a belief net B E. In contrast with many other \knowledge revision" systems, we deal with the situation where this I A may be imperfect, which means B E should not necessarily incorporate that information. Instead, we provide tools to help the expert decide how to use I A. After presentin...

Commentary: an imperfect compromise.

Modelling an Imperfect Market

We propose a simple market model where agents trade different types of products with each other by using money, relying only on local information. Value fluctuations of single products, combined with the condition of maximum profit in transactions, readily lead to persistent fluctuations in the wealth of individual agents.